Trust deficit' bedevils prickly China-India ties

 

NEW DELHI - A recent suggestion from a Chinese think-tank that India should be broken up into smaller states has touched a raw nerve here and highlighted the prickly relations between the giant neighbours.
 
A Chinese soldier (left) and an Indian soldier stand guard at the ancient Nathu La border between the two Asian nations

The idea from a writer at the China Institute for International Strategic Studies, an obscurity for people outside China's close-knit defence circles, was seized on by Indian newspapers as evidence of China's malevolent intent.

The writer Zhan Lue, presumed to be a pseudonym, argued that if China "takes a little action, the so-called great Indian federation can be broken up."

India's ruling Congress Party dismissed the idea as a "paranoid hallucination," while an official foreign ministry statement voiced irritation at opinions on Indo-China relations being aired without "careful judgement."

Analysts say the reaction reflected anxiety here about the powerful neighbour to the north.

Fears of India's vulnerability were heightened by naval chief Sureesh Mehta, who admitted on August 10 that India could not compete with China on defence spending and warned Beijing was "creating formidable military capabilities."

Border disputes, trade disagreements and competition for regional influence complicate relations between Asia's most populous nations, with India's rapid emergence meaning they are increasingly rubbing up against each other.

"Our relations are now a bit shaky," acknowledged Srimati Chakravarty, director of the Delhi-based Institute of Chinese Studies.

A constant irritant is a long-running border dispute which has been the subject of 13 rounds of fruitless talks -- the last of which wound up just two weeks ago.

A brief but bloody border war in 1962 brutally exposed India's military weakness and its legacy is still felt today.

"Our trust deficit with China can never be liquidated unless our boundary problems are resolved," Mehta suggested in his public address to the National Maritime Foundation.

The frontier has remained tranquil since 1996 but the dispute erupted in June when Beijing angrily denounced the approval by the Asian Development Bank of a 2.9-billion-dollar funding plan for India.

China argued that some of the funds were meant for a watershed project in India's Arunachal Pradesh state, which Beijing claims as its territory.

And despite improving commercial links, China in March threatened to drag India to the World Trade Organisation over toys, chocolate and other trade rows.

"Coping with China will certainly be one of our primary challenges in the years ahead," said Mehta, warning Beijing's "known propensity for intervention in space and cyber-warfare" would also test India's resilience.

In addition to competition for land and military dominance, analysts point to other areas of friction as both countries develop, elevating millions from a life of poverty in subsistence agriculture.

"It is possible China sees India's growing demand for energy as a possible area of competition in the future," said Stockholm International Peace Research Institute director Bates Gill.

The Sweden-based think tank suggested, however, that China's key rivals on energy needs would be industrialised countries such as Japan or the United States and not India, where 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.

"For now, it appears India presents mainly a potential political challenge for China as the two powers seek greater recognition for their growing roles in world affairs," Gill told AFP.

India has ambitions for a toehold in the UN Security Council and is increasingly willing to make its voice heard on global issues such as trade, terrorism and climate change.

India, which has one of the world's most thriving software and outsourcing industries, has also begun modernising its military in a project which last month saw the sea trials of the country's first nuclear-powered submarine.

Delhi-based China expert Chakravarty says there is too much at stake for either side to allow relations to seriously deteriorate.

"Emerging irritants including possible disputes over a resources crunch could be resolved in an equitable manner," she said.

"Neither side can however afford to damage relations because of their economic ties," she said. Two-way trade has soared to more than 51 billion dollars in 2008-09 from 38 billion dollars the previous financial year.

Some observers have labelled Admiral Mehta's fears as exaggerated but voice worries over reports of increased patrols by China along India's borders and its growing clout with neighbouring countries such as Sri Lanka and Nepal.

In the respected Hindu newspaper, columnist Ananth Krishnan has suggested a lack of consensus in China on its policy for India.

"Some groups within the Communist Party of China favour a more hawkish attitude to India, and others in the government a more conciliatory position," Krishnan said in the article titled "Does Beijing really want to break up India?"

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